Four very clear favourites today, and I don’t see many of these matches going further than the minimum distance.
Sharapova v Makarova – BETASPORT MARKET HERE
The shrieker dug deep to beat Lisicki in R4 from a set down, annoying those without a mute button at their fingertips, but giving heart to those on her for the title. Today she takes on the giant-slayer, Ekaterina Makarova, who has brought down Zvonareva and Serena Williams in successive rounds, both in straight sets. The risk with the left-handed Russian is over- or under-rating those results – Serena was obviously hampered by a calf/ankle injury but that hasn’t always stopped her in the past. Zvonareva can flip between brilliant and flaky very quickly and didn’t have the run of matches under her belt that she needs to peak. The market is paying Makarova respect at around the 4.0 price, which I think is much too short. Maria’s record against lefties is strong, 26-4 since 2004, with losses to Schnyder, Safarova and Kvitova (2).
Sharapova in a canter, back the -5.5 games at 2.08.
Errani v Kvitova – BETASPORT MARKET HERE
The Italian rabbit has been a gold mine for me this tournament, continually under-rated by punters and bookies blinded by the power game of the vast majority of the tour. Errani’s game plan is simple – run down everything, keep getting balls back and annoy the hell out of your opponent. The more frustrated they get, the harder they try to hit it, the closer to the lines and so often that turns into balls sailing long, wide or into the net. But now, she faces she who is most likely to become no.1, Petra Kvitova. Nobody hits more winners than the Czech – it’s all about the power and her pinpoint accuracy. She has faced similar players in the past (first career meeting v Errani) and dealt with them brutally. With another Slam title and the no.1 mantle within reach, I don’t see her dropping this chance no matter how far Errani runs.
For an interest, have a couple of coins on the first set score being Kvitova 6-3 at 5.70
Djokovic v Ferrer – BETASPORT MARKET HERE
Head-to-heads suggest this one will be close, with the slate only 7-5 in favour of the Serb. Naturally you would expect Ferrer’s wins to all be on clay, but he has claimed two on hardcourt. However, both of those matches were at the season-ending Masters Cup/Tour Championships, the form from which I tend to dismiss as players are guaranteed a fortune just for turning up, and invariably, they are knackered from an exhausting season. I’m not totally convinced about Djokovic yet this year, his enormous workload last year has to come at a price he will pay sooner or later. There were lapses against Hewitt which might have been exploited more by a better player. Ferrer won’t be afraid of him, he knows his most recent success was only two months ago, not five years, and will attack any weakness he locates in the Djokovic game. Weirdly, only twice in 12 meetings has the match not been won in straight sets.
Surely that stat needs to level out a bit – I’m keen to back Ferrer to win a set, via the sets handicap market (+2.5) at 2.1. Still expect Djokovic to win unless his body shuts down.
Nishikori v Murray – BETASPORT MARKET HERE
It’s hard not to be impressed by Nishikori. He will lose out to most players on the tail of the tape, but he has been very well schooled at the Nick Bolletieri Academy and now that he is finally enduring a run of matches without injury problems, his form and ranking are at career peaks. By beating the likes of Tsonga, he has earned his shot at a semi-final berth but his best asset is his work ethic – he doesn’t have the power to mix it with the top guys, he relies on wearing them down. He has faced Murray just once before, with quite a lacklustre performance losing 3 & 0 in Shanghai last year. It’s basically Nishikori up against a bigger, better version of himself in Murray, and that type of match can turn out quite ugly.
Not so keen on this as a betting contest – back Murray -8.5 games at 1.95 if you need to have one.
Check out Scott Fergusons Full Preview of the Men HERE on Sportshub
Check out Scott Fergusons Full Preview of the Women HERE on Sportshub
Follow Scott Ferguson throughout the Australian Open on TWITTER for all his banter, bets and insight @Borisranting
