Three cracking semi-finals on the Australia Day menu, I’m expecting to see some fascinating contests, hopefully much closer than the quarters which only took two sets more than the minimum across both sexes. It might be “ladies semi-finals day” but you can’t deny that the match of the day will be beneath the setting sun later on.
Federer v Nadal - BETASPORT MARKET HERE
The two superstars of our generation meet in a semi-final which makes even the most infrequent tennis fan salivate. Ticket scalpers will be able to name their price, this is the most valuable ticket in town, even ahead of Black Caviar at the Valley!
For all the hype about the resurgence of Federer, you have to cast that aside and examine when & where his big wins have been lately. The records don’t lie, he trails Rafa 19-9 on the h2h and Roger’s last two wins have been at Tour finals, an event which I deem as irrelevant as exhibition events. Players are knackered after a long season, and some still have to conserve energy for a Davis Cup final, something Switzerland doesn’t have to bother about. Fed looks in better form but tennis is all about matchups. Rafa has the won their last five clashes on outdoor hardcourts. You can argue that Rafa isn’t 100% fit – my counter to that is when has he ever been 100% fit? His knees haven’t been right for several years now. This match is more in the mind than any other.
You have to put the visuals out of your mind and go with the facts – Rafa ‘owns’ Federer these days, and the injury cloud simply gives us a better price. 2.27 is more than enough of a premium to compensate for the risk. If fully fit, the prices should be reversed.
Check out Darren Parkin’s Preview HERE
Clijsters v Azarenka – BETASPORT MARKET HERE
Another match with an injury concern over the player who should be favourite, and thus swaying the odds our way. The ankle roll against Li looks under control for Clijsters, if anything it’s the nausea from the medication that she’s more worried about. This is a match which will be most fought in the mind – Clijsters has been there done that many times. Azarenka is supposedly faster, stronger, more mature this year – but until she finds the steely resolve of a Williams, Clijsters or Henin, she cannot take the next step.
Clisters holds the h2h edge 4-2 and has been at this end of a Slam many times. Azarenka can’t be backed with confidence yet with so much on the line. The last couple of meetings have had the Belgian around 1.4, it’s a huge jump up to today’s price. Back Clijsters for the win at 1.88.
Check out Darren Parkin’s Preview HERE
Sharapova v Kvitova – BETSAPORT MARKET HERE
The least told story of the three semis today is the battle of the Ovas, with only two completed contests between them. Kvitova’s rise to the top has been swift and decisive. Apart from a wobble in the US hardcourt season where she found the humidity very tough with her asthma, her form over the past year has been devastating and she has one hand already on the number one crown. She found Errani a little trickier than expected but give credit to the Italian, she took pace off the ball and disrupted Petra’s rhythm. That is not a tactic within Sharapova’s weaponry – could you honestly imagine her hitting shots regularly without that ear-piercing shriek?
This will be a match all about power. Lines will be getting dusted regularly and the points won’t be that long. Kvitova is the best on the tour at ‘stand and deliver’ tennis these days, and that will propel her into the final. 1.59 is a bit short straight out, take Kvitova -2.5 at 1.89 instead.
Check out Darren Parkin’s Preview HERE
Follow Scott Ferguson throughout the Australian Open on TWITTER for all his banter, bets and insight @Borisranting
